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GMC GROUP FOR INDUSTRIAL COMME   1.29        Telecom Egypt   11.48        Ismailia Misr Poultry   2.45        El Arabia for Investment & Dev   0.34        Modern Company For Water Proof   1.03        Egyptian Real Estate Group   6.85        Pioneers Holding   2.84        Ezz Steel   7.86        Orascom Telecom Holding (OT)   3.92        Rakta Paper Manufacturing   4.39        Egyptian Iron & Steel   6.87        Naeem Holding   0.19        Misr Chemical Industries   5.65        United Arab Shipping   0.43        Egyptians Housing Development    1.94        Universal For Paper and Packag   4.94        Northern Upper Egypt Developme   4.93        Canal Shipping Agencies   7.39        Egyptian for Tourism Resorts   0.69        Modern Shorouk Printing & Pack   7        Upper Egypt Contracting   0.8        Egyptian Financial Group-Herme   7.42        Orascom Construction Industrie   240.82        Heliopolis Housing   21.65        United Housing & Development   8.93        Raya Holding For Technology An   4.57        International Agricultural Pro   2.1        Gulf Canadian Real Estate Inve   18.08        Alexandria Pharmaceuticals   45.71        Arab Cotton Ginning   2.46        Egyptian Chemical Industries (   7.26        National Real Estate Bank for    11.84        National Development Bank   6.72        Six of October Development & I   15.03        Oriental Weavers   20.66        Arab Gathering Investment   16.29        Egyptians Abroad for Investmen   2.75        Palm Hills Development Company   1.61        Credit Agricole Egypt   9.04        Remco for Touristic Villages C   2.13        Commercial International Bank    29.87        El Ezz Porcelain (Gemma)   1.9        Egyptian Starch & Glucose   5.4        Arab Real Estate Investment (A   0.41        South Valley Cement   3.12        Citadel Capital - Common Share   2.5        Rowad Tourism (Al Rowad)   5.05        Union National Bank - Egypt "    3.25        Ceramic & Porcelain   2.88        El Nasr Transformers (El Maco)   4.78        Egyptian Media Production City   2.31        GB AUTO   27        Sharkia National Food   3.78        Egyptian Transport (EGYTRANS)   7.85        El Kahera Housing   4.97        El Shams Housing & Urbanizatio   2.45        Egyptian Kuwaiti Holding   0.7        ARAB POLVARA SPINNING & WEAVIN   2.11        Cairo Poultry   8.32        Egyptian Financial & Industria   8        T M G Holding   4.03        Asek Company for Mining - Asco   10.66        Misr Hotels   27        Egyptian Electrical Cables   0.56        Medinet Nasr Housing   22.51        Mena Touristic & Real Estate I   1.21        ELSWEDY CABLES   18        Al Arafa Investment And Consul   0.17        Prime Holding   0.91        Alexandria Spinning & Weaving    0.74        General Company For Land Recla   16.6        Gharbia Islamic Housing Develo   8.41        Alexandria Cement   8.9        Arab Valves Company   0.94        Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals   12.4        TransOceans Tours   0.09        Egyptian for Developing Buildi   6.43        Egyptian Gulf Bank   1.24        Kafr El Zayat Pesticides   18.19        Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt -   35.1        National company for maize pro   11.86        Delta Construction & Rebuildin   4.03        Zahraa Maadi Investment & Deve   48.25        Samad Misr -EGYFERT   3.52        Egypt for Poultry   1.41        Cairo Development and Investme   11.7        Cairo Pharmaceuticals   20.1        Maridive & oil services   0.9        Suez Canal Bank   3.75        Nile Pharmaceuticals   15.81        The Arab Dairy Products Co. AR   73.85        National Housing for Professio   14.39        El Ahli Investment and Develop   4.87        Egyptian Saudi Finance Bank   10.79        Ismailia National Food Industr   5.16        National Societe Generale Bank   25.52        Acrow Misr   19.16        Alexandria Mineral Oils Compan   63.63        Paper Middle East (Simo)   5.59        Egypt Aluminum   12.31        Giza General Contracting   13.12        Middle Egypt Flour Mills   5.82        Extracted Oils   0.6        Assiut Islamic Trading   4.56        Engineering Industries (ICON)   3.95        North Cairo Mills   15.3        Arab Pharmaceuticals   11.88        Grand Capital   5.38        El Ahram Co. For Printing And    10.68        Minapharm Pharmaceuticals   25.49        El Arabia Engineering Industri   13.52        El Nasr For Manufacturing Agri   9.71        Naeem portfolio and fund Manag   1.7        Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt -   6.76        Natural Gas & Mining Project (   68.26        Housing & Development Bank   13.95        East Delta Flour Mills   31.5        Orascom Development Holding (A   3.22        Memphis Pharmaceuticals   11.12        Abou Kir Fertilizers   134.23        Delta Insurance   5        Cairo Investment & Real Estate   12.18        Cairo Oils & Soap   12.98        Egyptian Arabian (cmar) Securi   0.36        Egyptian Real Estate Group Bea   15.56        Alexandria Containers and good   85.51        Upper Egypt Flour Mills   45.78        Development & Engineering Cons   9.94        Sinai Cement   15.18        Medical Union Pharmaceuticals   28.01        Torah Cement   24.2        Alexandria New Medical Center   46.55        Export Development Bank of Egy   5.04        Egyptian Company for Mobile Se   92.02        Middle & West Delta Flour Mill   32.7        El Kahera El Watania Investmen   4.18        Mansourah Poultry   12.41        Delta Sugar   11.04        Misr Beni Suef Cement   41.21        Egyptian Satellites (NileSat)   6.14        Cairo Educational Services   17.75        Lecico Egypt   7.55        Sharm Dreams Co. for Tourism I   5.3        General Silos & Storage   10.77        Al Moasher for Programming and   0.66        UTOPIA   5.28        Arab Ceramics (Aracemco)   25.4        Barbary Investment Group ( BIG   0.98        


The Watch - forex news

Amwal Al Ghad English - 2014-12-27 10:45:27
Gold prices finished a holiday-shortened week down three-hundreths of a percentage point as gains Friday failed to outweigh heavy losses earlier in the week. Gold for February delivery GCG5, +1.93% surged $22.10, or 1.88%, to $1,196.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday, but remained down 0.04% for the week after a big selloff on Monday. Silver for March delivery SIH5, +2.39% gained 43 cents, or 2.7%, to $16.14 an ounce. Analysts said investors who were buying saw gold as a bargain and were taking advantage of thin volumes. “The weaker dollar probably attracted some bids, but volumes are really low and this rally might not last once everyone is back from the holidays,” a precious metals trader in Singapore told Yahoo News. Platinum for January delivery PLF5, +2.16% jumped $27.30, or 2.29%, to $1,218.40 an ounce. Palladium for March delivery PAH5, +1.18% rose $10.15, or 1.26%, at $817.95 an ounce. High-grade copper for March delivery HGH5, -1.38% was off 4 cents at $2.81 a pound. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2014-12-27 10:29:04
The dollar rose against the yen and euro on Friday in scant volume, with many major markets still closed after the Christmas holiday. The greenback approached a 7-1/2-year peak against the yen and moved close to a 2-1/2-year high versus the euro based on the view the U.S. economy is expanding at a fast enough clip that the Federal Reserve could consider ending its near-zero interest-rate policy in mid-2015, analysts said. "You have to be long-term bullish on the dollar next year. There's going to be a dip-buying mentality" said Rob Zukowski, senior technical analyst at 4Cast Ltd. based in New York. Trading activity will likely pick up only a tad early next week due to another shortened week when markets will be closed on New Year's Day. Data on Tuesday that showed the U.S. economy growing at its fastest quarterly pace in 11 years underscored the divergence in paths between the world's largest economy and those of Japan and Europe, where monetary policy is expected to remain loose to boost growth and avert deflation. Data released on Friday highlighted some of the struggle the Bank of Japan faces. The year-on-year rise in Japan's core consumer prices slowed to 2.7 percent in November from 2.9 percent in October as a result of the steep drop in crude oil prices. Widening differentials between U.S. and record-low Japanese and German yields should favor the dollar as more traders return from holidays. U.S. two-year Treasuries yield held a 0.84 percentage point premium over the comparable German Schatz yield, which was the largest since early 2007. It held a 0.74 point yield premium over two-year Japanese government debt, close to the biggest level since May 2010, according to Reuters data. After a dip to 120.08 yen the dollar was up 0.2 percent at 120.38, within sight of a 7-1/2-year high of 121.86 set on Dec. 7 on the EBS trading system. The dollar also regained some ground against the euro after two days on the retreat. The euro inched down 0.4 percent to $1.2176, edging back towards a 28-month trough of $1.2165 reached on Tuesday in reaction to the unexpectedly strong U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product growth. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, was up nearly 0.1 percent at 90.038. On Tuesday, it hit 90.159, the strongest since March 2006. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2014-12-27 10:26:09
Oil prices fell Friday, tumbling as the dollar strengthened and as a supply glut in top consumer, the United States, trumped worries about falling production from Libya. The market had come under pressure from Wednesday's Energy Department report, which showed a 7.3 million-barrel rise in crude inventories to their highest December level on record. Analysts had expected a seasonal decline. The slide was exacerbated as oil prices reacted to a strengthening dollar index. "There’s still significant weakness in confidence, and that means that we’re going to have occasional retests to the downside,” said Richard Hastings of Global Hunter Securities. The strengthening dollar index triggered the slide on Friday, he said. Additionally, the market continued to reel from bearish storage data just before the Christmas holiday. “The numbers on Wednesday were really bearish, and it’s possible the market is still trying to digest them,” said Andrew Lebow, a Senior Vice President of Jefferies in New York. “Maybe the path of least resistance is down here, given that we’ve been in a long down trend.” Crude imports by Japan, the world's fourth-biggest oil buyer, dropped 17.3 percent in November from a year earlier to 14.68 million kilolitres (3.08 million bpd), government data showed on Thursday. Brent crude settled down 79 cents at $59.45, while U.S. crude fell $1.11 to $54.73 in thin trade as many countries were still on holiday. "We tried to rally off of the Libyan situation, but I think that the market is still reeling from larger-than-expected inventory data," said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group in Chicago. Fighting in Libya has cut output there to 352,000 barrels a day, or about half November's average, state oil company spokesman said on Thursday. This countered the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) report showing a big stockbuild. In Libya, a rocket hit a storage tank at the country's biggest export terminal, Es Sider, setting it on fire as armed factions allied to competing governments fought for control, officials from both sides said on Thursday. On Friday, officials said the blaze had spread to two more tanks. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2014-12-25 10:04:22
Crude-oil futures settled lower Wednesday, wiping out earlier gains as U.S. data confirmed an unexpected jump in crude inventories. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February CLG5, -2.22% fell $1.28, or 2.2%, to $55.84 a barrel. The contract is down 2.3% on the week. February Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange LCOG5, -2.50% was down $1.45, or 2.4%, to $60.24 a barrel. On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said commercial crude inventories rose 7.3 million barrels from the previous week to 387.2 million barrels. On average, analysts were looking for a decrease of 1.8 million barrels. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute said its data showed a 5.4-million-barrel gain in U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ended Dec. 19. Rising U.S. oil production due to the shale boom has been largely responsible for the glut in oil markets, and a large build-up in U.S. supply typically weighs on oil prices. Meanwhile, Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for January RBF5, -3.16% — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell nearly 6 cents, or 3.7%, to settle at just over $1.51 a gallon. The contract is down 3% for the week. Oil prices were volatile this week, and traders remain divided over whether the Brent oil benchmark will hold at $60 a barrel, which has emerged as a support over the last few days. Brent crude is supported by the recent decline in Libyan oil production due to unrest, but “OPEC’s determination to fight for market share remains a dominant bearish fundamental factor,” analyst Tim Evans at Citi Futures said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by its largest producer, Saudi Arabia, has refused to intervene to support oil prices. That could mean high-cost producers will be driven out of the market first. The oil cartel, however, risks a fall in revenue while waiting for other producers to blink first. “The collapse in oil prices looks set to wipe out the Gulf’s external [current account] surpluses next year, leaving China and the euro-zone as the world’s major surplus economies,” Capital Economics said. However, it estimates that Gulf economies should be able to weather lower oil prices without making big spending cuts for a short period, and could even run a small current account deficit in the coming years. Natural gas for January delivery NGF15, -4.35% fell 14 cents, or 4.4%, to $3.03 per million British thermal units, while heating oil for January HOF5, -3.33% delivery declined nearly 7 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at just over $1.92 a gallon. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2014-12-25 09:54:29
The Japanese yen rose on Thursday in extremely thin trade because of the Christmas holiday, but the dollar remained not far from the week's highs hit on diverging monetary policy outlooks. Tokyo markets were open for business as usual, giving Japanese exporters a chance to sell dollars. But many foreign investors were taking time off, and markets were closed in other key countries around the region, including Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea. They will also be closed in Europe and North America. The greenback shed about 0.3 percent on the day to 120.15 yen JPY=, while the euro also slipped about 0.3 percent to 146.69 yen EURJPY=. The euro was slightly up on the day at $1.2216 EUR=, but was not far from a 28-month low of $1.2165 hit after the U.S. GDP data. The dollar index .DXY, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, edged down about 0.2 percent to 89.811, after it rose as high as 90.159 in the wake of the U.S. GDP report, its highest level since March 2006. Recently upbeat U.S. economic data has provided evidence that the economy is steadily recovering, and heightened expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is on track to eventually hike interest rates in 2015. That outlook is in sharp contrast to Japan and Europe, where monetary policy is expected to remain loose to stimulate growth. "Other than positioning, there are not a lot of people sitting in the cheering section for the yen right now," said Bart Wakabayashi, head of forex at State Street in Tokyo. "There's no denying that the Fed continues to talk about when they're going to hike, as opposed to if they're going to hike," he said. Revised gross domestic product figures out on Tuesday showed the U.S. economy grew at an annualised 5.0 percent in the third quarter, its fastest pace in 11 years. U.S. data on Wednesday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week. Meanwhile, minutes of the Bank of Japan's November meeting released on Thursday showed that policy board members made a rare call on the government to steadily promote measures to restore the country's fiscal health, a month after they expanded monetary stimulus. At the November meeting, the central bank kept monetary policy unchanged after it took further easing steps in October to blunt the impact of sliding oil prices on its plan to achieve its 2 percent price growth target. It held steady at a subsequent meeting in December. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Thursday that the recent declines in oil prices have great benefits for Japan's economy and will help to accelerate inflation in the long run. The BOJ's massive easing program has pressured the yields on Japanese government bonds. The benchmark 10-year yield JP10YT=RR dropped 2 basis points to a record low 0.310 percent on Thursday, and shorter maturities have moved into negative territory, beginning at the front end of the curve. The two-year yield JP2YT=RR dropped to a record low of -0.040 percent last week, and on Thursday, the Ministry of Finance sold two-year JGBs at negative yields for the first time. Japanese yields are expected to stick to low levels as the BOJ continues its easy policy, in contrast to the Fed's expected hike in U.S. interest rates. These diverging expectations have helped the dollar gain around 14 percent against the yen so far this year, and to log a 7-1/2 year high of 121.86 yen earlier this month. "There were some guys taking profits in the dollar-yen this week, but most people seem happy to be caught long," said Kaneo Ogino, director at Global-info Co in Tokyo, a foreign exchange research firm. "The dollar is set to finish the year on a high note, after the GDP report." More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2014-12-25 09:51:59
Russia's ruble strengthened on Thursday as exporters sold foreign currency in response to government pressure and to meet tax payments, but trading volumes were thin as many Western markets were closed for the Christmas Day holidays. At 0825 GMT (3.25 a.m. EST), the rouble was 1.7 percent stronger against the dollar at 52.55 RUBUTSTN=MCX and gained 1.5 percent to trade at 64.53 versus the euro EURRUBTN=MCX. The rouble earlier hit its highest against the dollar and euro since Dec. 4 and has trimmed its losses against the greenback to around 37 percent this year. The Russian currency is supported towards the end of each month by tax payments to the state budget that require Russian exporters to convert part of their foreign-currency earnings into rubles. Forex sales have also risen after the government told large exporters on Tuesday that by March 1 they must bring their net foreign exchange assets back to the levels of Oct. 1. Analysts, however, are cautious on the near-term outlook for the rouble, saying much depends on oil prices, which remain weak, and progress in talks to secure a lasting peace in eastern Ukraine. "We think the short-term upside for the rouble is limited," Dmitry Polevoy at ING Bank said in a note, also citing the risk of Russia being downgraded to 'junk' status by ratings agency S&P as a factor weighing on investors' mood. The central bank has spent over $80 billion defending the rouble this year amid a slump in oil prices and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis that have restricted Russian firms' access to international capital markets. It said on Thursday that it and the Finance Ministry had not conducted forex market interventions on Dec 23. Russian shares were mixed on Thursday, largely reflecting the moves in the rouble. The dollar-denominated RTS index .IRTS was up 2.4 percent to 834 points, while its rouble-based peer MICEX traded 0.5 percent lower at 1,393 points. Shares in the country's second-largest bank VTB (VTBR.MM) rose over 5 percent. The Finance Ministry said on Thursday it was doing everything it could to ensure VTB gets money from the National Wealth Fund by the end of the year. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2014-12-24 10:31:11
The ruble weakened in early trade on Wednesday, giving up its slight gains seen at opening, after Standard and Poor's rating agency warned it could downgrade Russia's rating to speculative in January. At 0725 GMT, the rouble was 0.7 percent weaker against the dollar at 54.88 after opening 0.7 percent up. It lost 0.8 percent versus the euro to 67.00. Late on Tuesday, S&P revised Russia's credit ratings to creditwatch negative from negative, warning the country's monetary flexibility deterioration could lead to putting its sovereign rating into junk territory as soon as mid-January. "We note that S&P's rating for Russia is currently at the low boundary of the investment-grade category and would lose such a status if downgraded," analysts at Sberbank Investment Research wrote in a morning note. "Things would become more complicated if two of three ratings are moved to speculative." The central bank's statement that it would start lending money in hard currencies to companies and banks willing to put their foreign loans as collateral did little to help the currency. The ruble's decline was softened by exporters selling their foreign currency earnings, responding to the government's order from Tuesday to start selling hard currency and partly doing it on its own as they need rubles for the monthly tax payments due this week. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2014-12-24 10:17:40
The dollar was lower against the yen in subdued holiday trading in Asia on Wednesday, with some investors choosing to lock in profits after upbeat economic data pushed the U.S. currency up to a two-week high overnight. At last check, the dollar USDJPY, -0.21% was at ¥120.41, from ¥120.79 late Tuesday in New York. Figures released Tuesday showed that U.S. gross domestic product grew an annualized 5% between July and September — the fastest pace in more than a decade — helping push up the dollar to ¥120.82 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 18,000 at the close for the first time. The upbeat data and rise in U.S. shares buoyed the Tokyo stock market — the Nikkei Stock Average was up 1.1% at midday — but the dollar started weakening in the morning session, falling to as low as ¥120.27 in Tokyo in what appeared to be profit-taking. “The dollar is vulnerable to flows of profit-taking,” especially after its upswing, said Kyosuke Suzuki, head of the FX and money market sales department at Societe Generale in Tokyo. Currency trading is likely to remain subdued during the holiday season, a factor that often exaggerates relatively big flows related to commercial trade settlements ahead of the year-end book closing, said Suzuki, adding that the dollar may “remain vulnerable to moves in either direction.” J.P. Morgan said in a morning note that the dollar has a “tendency to regain volatility gradually” after the holiday season, with possible moves coming before the year-end or in the new year. The dollar’s strength over night reinforced the possibility that the dollar will test a recent high of ¥121.86 set on Dec. 8 toward the beginning of the new year. In other currency trading, the euro EURUSD, +0.28% was at $1.2188, from $1.2171, and at EURJPY, +0.08% ¥146.76, from ¥147.01. The WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, -0.19% a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.17% at 82.74. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2014-12-24 10:15:55
Crude-oil futures eased slightly Wednesday after overnight gains on the back of strong economic data from the U.S. and China. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February CLG5, -1.59% traded at $56.80 a barrel at last check, down $0.32 in the Globex electronic session. February Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange LCOG5, -1.49% fell $0.38 to $61.31 a barrel. Oil prices were volatile this week and traders remain divided over whether the Brent oil benchmark will hold at the $60 a barrel mark, which has emerged as a support over the last few days. Brent crude is supported by the recent decline in Libyan oil production due to unrest, but “OPEC’s determination to fight for market share remains a dominant bearish fundamental factor,” analyst Tim Evans at Citi Futures said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by its largest producer Saudi Arabia, has refused to intervene to support oil prices, which means that high-cost producers will be driven out of the market first. The oil cartel however risks a fall in revenues while waiting for other producers to blink first. “The collapse in oil prices looks set to wipe out the Gulf’s external [current account] surpluses next year, leaving China and the euro-zone as the world’s major surplus economies,” Capital Economics said. It estimates that Gulf economies should be able to weather lower oil prices without making big spending cuts for a short period, and could even run a small current account deficit in the coming years. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute said its data showed a 5.4-million-barrel gain in U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ended Dec. 19. Rising U.S. oil production due to the shale boom has been largely responsible for the glut in oil markets and a large build-up in U.S. supply typically weighs on oil prices. The more closely watched weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due at 3:30 p.m. London time, or 10:30 Eastern Time, on Wednesday, and analysts expect it to show a drop of 1.8 million barrels. Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for January RBF5, -1.59% — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 122 points to $1.5582 a gallon, while January diesel traded at $1.9806, 101 points lower. ICE gasoil for January changed hands at $555.50 a metric ton, up $5.00 from Tuesday’s settlement. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2014-12-23 09:59:02
Russian policy makers are signaling they’re prepared to sacrifice economic growth in order to stabilize the ruble. The Bank of Russia raised its benchmark interest rate by the most in 16 years last week and created a money-market cash squeeze, helping the ruble strengthen 45 percent from a record low on Dec. 16. The consequence of this means the oil producer’s economy may shrink 7.9 percent in 2015, Danske Bank A/S said on Dec. 19, revising a view for a 1.8 percent contraction. “We’re seeing a serious monetary shock, especially next year,” Vladimir Miklashevsky, a strategist at Danske, said by phone the same day. “What they’ve done is more serious for the economy than falling oil, it’s a big negative factor.” While the ruble’s plunge may have halted for now, challenges are deepening for the economy, which has been weakened by U.S. and European sanctions over Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin told Russians last week to brace for a recession as this year’s 45 percent drop in oil undermines the world’s biggest energy exporter. If crude drops further, the ruble’s hard-won stability may prove short-lived, said Vladimir Vedeneev at Raiffeisen Capital in Moscow. The ruble gained 6.3 percent to 55.08 per dollar at 6:24 p.m. in Moscow, after China offered Russia help with the suggestion of wider currency swaps. It advanced 5 percent on Dec. 19, strengthening from a low of 80.1 on Dec. 16. One-day interbank deposit rates dropped to 20 percent from 22.5 percent on Dec. 19. The Bank of Russia raised its rate 6.5 percentage points to 17 percent on Dec. 16. Squeezed Borrowers Higher interest rates and a weaker ruble are combining to squeeze Russian companies and individual as growth stalls. The economy may shrink 4.5 percent in 2015 if oil stays at $60 per barrel, the central bank said on Dec. 15. The ruble lost as much as a fifth of its value on Dec. 16, blowing through that day’s surprise rate increase and sparking concern that Russia would announce capital controls. It was only when the higher rates led to a shortage of rubles that the currency began its rebound. The currency is still down 45 percent this year. “The peak of the currency crisis is behind us as authorities have taken decisive and appropriate actions,” Bernd Berg, a London-based emerging-market strategist at Societe Generale SA, said in e-mailed comments Dec. 19. “There is still work to be done and the ruble might remain very volatile in the short term. Over time, volatility will calm down and the ruble steadily appreciate assuming stabilizing oil prices.” Ruble Shorts The ruble’s drop this year has been aggravated by traders betting on central bank intervention to slow its decline. The cash squeeze created last week “stopped local banks from shorting the ruble” using funds previously obtained from central bank liquidity injections, Danske’s Miklashevsky said. The success of Russia’s support for the ruble depends on oil prices and the longevity of sanctions, according to Oleg Kouzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow. “At the current oil price of $60 a barrel,” if sanctions aren’t tightened, the ruble might average around 50 in the mid-term, Kouzmin said by e-mail Dec. 19. If there’s a “massive run on the currency among the population,” the ruble might “move to levels that are difficult to quantify,” he said. Oil Trigger Brent crude has rebounded 3.6 percent from a low of $58.50 a barrel on Dec. 16, trading at $60.63 today. This year’s slump accelerated after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries held its output target. Russia gets about half of its budget revenue from oil and gas. Crude may fall to $50 in the medium term, which would imply the ruble dropping to between 70 and 75 to the dollar, Vedeneev, chief investment officer of Raiffeisen, said Dec. 19. Policy makers made it “more expensive to play against the ruble,” Aleksei Belkin, who helps manage about $4 billion at Kapital Asset Management LLC, said by e-mail from Moscow on Dec. 19. “It’s a bit too soon to judge the effectiveness as it is natural for buyers and sellers to back off on the days following such massive moves.” More»