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GMC GROUP FOR INDUSTRIAL COMME   1.29        Telecom Egypt   11.48        Modern Company For Water Proof   1.03        Ismailia Misr Poultry   2.45        El Arabia for Investment & Dev   0.34        Ezz Steel   7.86        Egyptian Real Estate Group   6.85        Pioneers Holding   2.84        Rakta Paper Manufacturing   4.39        Orascom Telecom Holding (OT)   3.92        Egyptian Iron & Steel   6.87        Naeem Holding   0.19        Canal Shipping Agencies   7.39        Misr Chemical Industries   5.65        United Arab Shipping   0.43        Egyptians Housing Development    1.94        Universal For Paper and Packag   4.94        Northern Upper Egypt Developme   4.93        Egyptian for Tourism Resorts   0.69        Egyptian Financial Group-Herme   7.42        Orascom Construction Industrie   240.82        Modern Shorouk Printing & Pack   7        Upper Egypt Contracting   0.8        Heliopolis Housing   21.65        Raya Holding For Technology An   4.57        United Housing & Development   8.93        International Agricultural Pro   2.1        Gulf Canadian Real Estate Inve   18.08        Alexandria Pharmaceuticals   45.71        Arab Cotton Ginning   2.46        Egyptian Chemical Industries (   7.26        National Real Estate Bank for    11.84        Six of October Development & I   15.03        National Development Bank   6.72        Oriental Weavers   20.66        Arab Gathering Investment   16.29        Egyptians Abroad for Investmen   2.75        Credit Agricole Egypt   9.04        Palm Hills Development Company   1.61        Remco for Touristic Villages C   2.13        Commercial International Bank    29.87        El Ezz Porcelain (Gemma)   1.9        Egyptian Starch & Glucose   5.4        Arab Real Estate Investment (A   0.41        South Valley Cement   3.12        Citadel Capital - Common Share   2.5        Rowad Tourism (Al Rowad)   5.05        Union National Bank - Egypt "    3.25        Ceramic & Porcelain   2.88        El Nasr Transformers (El Maco)   4.78        Egyptian Media Production City   2.31        GB AUTO   27        Sharkia National Food   3.78        Egyptian Transport (EGYTRANS)   7.85        El Kahera Housing   4.97        El Shams Housing & Urbanizatio   2.45        Egyptian Kuwaiti Holding   0.7        ARAB POLVARA SPINNING & WEAVIN   2.11        Cairo Poultry   8.32        Egyptian Financial & Industria   8        T M G Holding   4.03        Asek Company for Mining - Asco   10.66        Misr Hotels   27        Egyptian Electrical Cables   0.56        Medinet Nasr Housing   22.51        Mena Touristic & Real Estate I   1.21        ELSWEDY CABLES   18        Prime Holding   0.91        Al Arafa Investment And Consul   0.17        Alexandria Spinning & Weaving    0.74        General Company For Land Recla   16.6        Gharbia Islamic Housing Develo   8.41        Alexandria Cement   8.9        Arab Valves Company   0.94        Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals   12.4        TransOceans Tours   0.09        Egyptian for Developing Buildi   6.43        Egyptian Gulf Bank   1.24        Kafr El Zayat Pesticides   18.19        Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt -   35.1        National company for maize pro   11.86        Delta Construction & Rebuildin   4.03        Zahraa Maadi Investment & Deve   48.25        Samad Misr -EGYFERT   3.52        Egypt for Poultry   1.41        Cairo Development and Investme   11.7        Cairo Pharmaceuticals   20.1        Maridive & oil services   0.9        Suez Canal Bank   3.75        Nile Pharmaceuticals   15.81        The Arab Dairy Products Co. AR   73.85        National Housing for Professio   14.39        El Ahli Investment and Develop   4.87        Egyptian Saudi Finance Bank   10.79        Ismailia National Food Industr   5.16        National Societe Generale Bank   25.52        Acrow Misr   19.16        Alexandria Mineral Oils Compan   63.63        Paper Middle East (Simo)   5.59        Egypt Aluminum   12.31        Giza General Contracting   13.12        Middle Egypt Flour Mills   5.82        Extracted Oils   0.6        Assiut Islamic Trading   4.56        Engineering Industries (ICON)   3.95        North Cairo Mills   15.3        Arab Pharmaceuticals   11.88        Grand Capital   5.38        El Ahram Co. For Printing And    10.68        Minapharm Pharmaceuticals   25.49        El Arabia Engineering Industri   13.52        El Nasr For Manufacturing Agri   9.71        Naeem portfolio and fund Manag   1.7        Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt -   6.76        Natural Gas & Mining Project (   68.26        Housing & Development Bank   13.95        East Delta Flour Mills   31.5        Orascom Development Holding (A   3.22        Memphis Pharmaceuticals   11.12        Abou Kir Fertilizers   134.23        Delta Insurance   5        Cairo Investment & Real Estate   12.18        Cairo Oils & Soap   12.98        Egyptian Arabian (cmar) Securi   0.36        Egyptian Real Estate Group Bea   15.56        Alexandria Containers and good   85.51        Upper Egypt Flour Mills   45.78        Development & Engineering Cons   9.94        Sinai Cement   15.18        Medical Union Pharmaceuticals   28.01        Torah Cement   24.2        Alexandria New Medical Center   46.55        Export Development Bank of Egy   5.04        Egyptian Company for Mobile Se   92.02        Middle & West Delta Flour Mill   32.7        El Kahera El Watania Investmen   4.18        Mansourah Poultry   12.41        Delta Sugar   11.04        Misr Beni Suef Cement   41.21        Egyptian Satellites (NileSat)   6.14        Cairo Educational Services   17.75        Lecico Egypt   7.55        Sharm Dreams Co. for Tourism I   5.3        General Silos & Storage   10.77        Al Moasher for Programming and   0.66        UTOPIA   5.28        Arab Ceramics (Aracemco)   25.4        Barbary Investment Group ( BIG   0.98        

The Watch - forex news

Amwal Al Ghad English - 2016-06-27 08:32:04
Oil prices stabilized on Monday as market participants better absorbed the shock of last week's vote in Great Britain to leave the European Union and recognized the referendum would have little effect on global fuel demand. Brent crude futures were trading at $48.76 a barrel by 0650 GMT on Monday, up 35 cents from their last settlement. U.S. crude was up 18 cents at $47.81 a barrel. Both crude benchmarks had fallen around 5 percent on Friday amid plunging global financial markets as results from a referendum defied bookmakers' odds to show a 52 percent to 48 percent victory for the campaign to leave a bloc Britain joined more than 40 years ago. But oil stabilized on Monday as analysts said that Britain's EU exit would have very little impact on physical oil trading. "If we assume a 2 percent drop in UK GDP in response to the exit vote, which is on the high end of our economists' estimates, then UK oil demand would likely be reduced by 1 percent or 16,000 barrels per day, which is a 0.016 percent hit to global demand. This is extremely small on any measure."" said Goldman Sachs. Of more concern to the market is a building refined products glut, especially in Asia. "For near term oil, we remain most concerned about product oversupply, China demand, the macro outlook, and the likely return of production," Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients. Chinese refiners have responded to the Asian oil products glut by exporting record amounts of gasoline and diesel fuel into regional markets, eroding refinery profit margins and swelling storage. As a result, analysts said there is a possibility that refiners dial back production and curb orders for their main feedstock crude oil, potentially weighing on prices. Despite this, Morgan Stanley added that "the medium term trend towards oil market rebalancing appears in place, barring a recession." This implies that oil prices would likely remain stable or rise as a supply overhang that pulled down prices by as much as 70 percent between 2014 and early 2016 is gradually brought down, bringing production back in line with consumption. In shipping, Panama opened the long-delayed $5.2 billion expansion of its shipping canal connecting the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans on Sunday, but the facilities are still too small to handle oil super-tankers like Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC). More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2016-06-25 09:54:15
Oil prices edged 5 percent lower on Friday after Britain's vote to leave the European Union spurred massive risk aversion and a rally in safe havens like the U.S. dollar that threatened to cut short a three-month-long recovery in global oil markets. Financial markets have been worried for months about what a British exit from the European Union, dubbed widely as 'Brexit,' would mean for Europe's future, but were clearly not fully factoring in the risk of a 'leave' vote. The dollar index jumped about 2 percent, its most since 2008, while sterling collapsed to a 31-year low after British Prime Minister David Cameron, who campaigned to remain in the EU, said he would stand down by October. A rallying dollar makes oil and other commodities denominated in the greenback costlier for holders of the euro and other currencies. Brent crude settled down 4.9 percent, or $2.50, at $48.41 a barrel. It had fallen 6 percent earlier to $47.54. U.S. crude fell 5 percent, or $2.47, to settle at $47.64, its largest one-day decline since February. The losses were much smaller on the week, with Brent down 1.5 percent and U.S. crude 0.7 percent. Analysts in oil markets sought to put the Brexit crisis in perspective even as some $2 trillion was wiped off equity bourses worldwide, and money poured into safe-haven gold and government bonds. "This is an historic event and will not be swept under the rug very quickly," said Dominick Chirichella, senior partner at the Energy Management Institute in New York. "That said, markets will not remain in turmoil as they are at the moment for an extended period of time. There is no indication that the global financial markets are anywhere near a meltdown as we saw in 2008. The UK will not collapse and the EU will not collapse anytime soon." Despite the retreat, oil prices held above last week's one-month lows when fears of a British exit from the EU spiked and Brent hit a trough of $46.94 while U.S. crude tumbled to $45.83. Some analysts said oil could face further pressure. "Our view is that we have not yet seen the low oil price of the day with Brent likely to trade down towards $45 or lower before we have seen the worst of it," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at Nordic bank SEB. Investors paid little heed to data on Friday showing the U.S. oil rig count fell by seven this week, the first weekly reduction in four weeks. "Higher risk aversion is likely to make it hard for prices to regain the $50 per barrel mark in anything like the near future," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Frankfurt's Commerzbank. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2016-06-25 09:45:56
Gold soared as much as 8 percent to its highest in more than two years on Friday after Britain delivered a shock vote to leave the European Union (EU), sending investors scurrying for protection in bullion and other assets perceived as lower risk. In sterling terms, gold delivered double-digit percentage gains to top 1,000 pounds an ounce for the first time in more than three years, rallying as much as 21 percent in early trade, while euro-priced gold rose as much as 13 percent. Spot gold peaked at $1,358.20 per ounce and was up 5.15 percent at $1,319.86 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled up $59.30 at $1,322.40, and were last up $59.70 an ounce at $1,322.50 off an early high of $1,362.60 an ounce. Shares of gold mining companies also rocketed higher, with a fund tracking the industry opening nearly 8 percent higher. "(Brexit) benefits gold because in a general risk-off mode, it's a natural safe haven for everybody," Marie Owens Thomsen, chief economist at Indosuez Wealth Management, said. "Now that the UK has voted to leave, we think there's a higher probability that the $1,350-1,360 per ounce level can be breached, and we're therefore looking for an extended target in the $1,400s." Gold priced in sterling was last at 965.80 pounds an ounce, up 14.5 percent, having peaked at 1,019.03 pounds overnight. Euro-denominated gold was up 9.5 percent at 1,195.20 euros an ounce, off a high of 1,244.34 euros. Gold dealers in London reported surging demand for coins and bars among retail investors on Friday, with some saying stocks were tight. <p>Gold prices soaring following Brexit vote</p> <p>The precious metal is spiking Friday as investors look for protection following the Brexit vote.</p> Gold soared as much as 8 percent to its highest in more than two years on Friday after Britain delivered a shock vote to leave the European Union, sending investors scurrying for protection in bullion and other assets perceived as lower risk. In sterling terms, gold delivered double-digit percentage gains to top 1,000 pounds an ounce for the first time in more than three years, rallying as much as 21 percent in early trade, while euro-priced gold rose as much as 13 percent. Spot gold peaked at $1,358.20 per ounce and was up 5.15 percent at $1,319.86 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled up $59.30 at $1,322.40, and were last up $59.70 an ounce at $1,322.50 off an early high of $1,362.60 an ounce. Shares of gold mining companies also rocketed higher, with a fund tracking the industry opening nearly 8 percent higher. <p>Where&#039;s the gold selloff?</p> <p>Richard Ross, Evercore ISI Head of Technical Analysis, goes off the charts to look into the gold trade.</p> "(Brexit) benefits gold because in a general risk-off mode, it's a natural safe haven for everybody," Marie Owens Thomsen, chief economist at Indosuez Wealth Management, said. "Now that the UK has voted to leave, we think there's a higher probability that the $1,350-1,360 per ounce level can be breached, and we're therefore looking for an extended target in the $1,400s." Gold priced in sterling was last at 965.80 pounds an ounce, up 14.5 percent, having peaked at 1,019.03 pounds overnight. Euro-denominated gold was up 9.5 percent at 1,195.20 euros an ounce, off a high of 1,244.34 euros. Gold dealers in London reported surging demand for coins and bars among retail investors on Friday, with some saying stocks were tight. <p>Futures Now: Key levels for gold</p> <p>The Futures Now team discusses the gold trade with Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial, and Jim Iuorio, TJM Institutional Services.</p> Britain's vote to leave the European Union forced the resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron and dealt the biggest blow to the European project of greater unity since World War Two. World stocks headed for one the biggest slumps on record as the vote triggered 8 percent falls for Europe's biggest bourses and a record plunge for sterling. The single currency was under pressure as investors worried that the Brexit vote could encourage similar movements in other European countries. U.S. short-term interest rates futures hit contract highs in early U.S. trading, boosting expectations the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to help shield the economy from any global fallout. "This isn't necessarily about Britain, it's about uncertainty in the world's largest economy," Amanda van Dyke, fund manager at Peterhouse Asset Management, said. "The general commentators are suggesting that the Fed is no longer going to raise rates because the dollar is soaring, and they can no longer afford for the dollar to keep going as fast as it is." "Realistically, the ability of the European market to speak with a common voice I think has been permanently severed, and that's going to be a solid 5 percent (price increase) in gold for at least the next couple of years." Silver futures were up 2.37 percent at $17.77 an ounce, while platinum futures were 2.09 percent higher at $986.50 an ounce. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2016-06-25 08:50:30
Sterling edged off lows against the U.S. dollar on Friday, recovering slightly from a 10 percent plunge to its weakest in 31 years following Britain's vote to leave the European Union, on reassuring statements from central banks. Sterling GBP=D4 was last down 8.1 percent against the dollar, at $1.3662, after touching its weakest since before the 1985 Plaza Accord of $1.3228. Traders said Bank of England chief Mark Carney's comments that the central bank stood ready to provide extra support helped sterling recover. Despite the smaller losses, the currency was on track to post a 4.9 percent decline for the week against the dollar, which would mark its biggest weekly loss since January 2009. Sterling had touched $1.5018, its highest since mid-December, in Asian trading ahead of the result after polling firm YouGov said the campaign to keep Britain in the EU appeared to be ahead. While the dollar gained against sterling because of its relative safety, investors favored the yen over the greenback, the euro, and sterling for its even greater perceived safety. Sterling was last down 11.4 percent against the yen GBPJPY= at 139.64 yen after falling as low as 133.38 yen, its lowest in roughly three and a half years. The dollar also pared losses against the yen after touching a more than two-and-a-half- year low of 99.11 yen JPY=, but was still down 3.6 percent at 102.27 yen in afternoon U.S. trading. While the dollar was last on track for its biggest one-day percentage drop against the yen since October 2008, speculation that the Bank of Japan could also act limited the yen's advance. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that excess volatility in currency markets was undesirable and he would respond to market moves when necessary. "Central banks have been out trying to reassure the market, and this has caused the market to pause and reflect," said Douglas Borthwick, managing director at Chapdelaine Foreign Exchange in New York. The euro EUR= pared losses against the dollar after touching its lowest level against the greenback in three and a half months of $1.0914, but was still hobbling and last down 2.5 percent at $1.1100. Despite the reassurances from central bankers, analysts anticipated more weakness in sterling and volatility in the currency markets broadly in coming months. Chapdelaine's Borthwick said sterling could fall to $1.30 by the end of July. The euro is expected to struggle given worries about the impact of Brexit on the euro zone economy. Analysts expect months of economic and political turmoil, which will dwarf the pressure on UK markets following sterling's "Black Wednesday" in 1992, when Britain was forced out of the pre-euro Exchange Rate Mechanism. "It's a confidence shock," said Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corporation in New York. "The economic news out of Europe is going to be pretty dire in the next few weeks." The dollar was last up 1.37 percent against the Swiss franc at 0.9713 franc CHF= after the Swiss National Bank became the first major central bank to intervene and weaken its own currency in reaction to Britain's vote. The dollar index .DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last up 2.10 percent at 95.489 after touching its highest level in more than three months of 96.703. For the week, the index was set to gain 1.4 percent to notch its best week in about four months. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2016-06-23 09:58:39
Pound Sterling advanced to a 2016 high against the dollar on Thursday after the last sweep of opinion polls favored Britain remaining in the European Union, just as voting got underway. Polls by ComRes, conducted for the Daily Mail newspaper and ITV television, and by YouGov for The Times newspaper in London, showed a last-minute rise in support for Britain to remain in the EU. And while most polls have suggested the vote was too close to call, the implied probability of a vote to remain in the European Union was at 76 percent, according to Betfair betting odds. It was at around 60 percent last Thursday before the killing of pro-EU lawmaker Jo Cox seemed to have somewhat shifted sentiment towards the "Remain" camp. Reduced Brexit fears have helped sterling gain roughly three percent so far this week, although given the vote is too close to call there is an element of caution. The level of uncertainty is embedded in the options market, where overnight sterling implied volatilities are marked as high as 125 percent amid very thin liquidity conditions. GBPOWO=R The pound was up 0.4 percent at $1.4770 GBP=D4 after touching $1.4847, its highest this year, with pricing in the options markets indicating sterling could drop to $1.40 and beyond in case Britain votes to exit while it could climb towards $1.55 in case it opted to stay. "The ComRes poll has given sterling a boost, but liquidity is very thin and the currency will be very volatile," said Yujiro Goto, currency strategist at Nomura. "If polls after the vote closes suggests that "Leave" is in front, then we could see sterling drop. These are very challenging conditions." The polling will close at 2100 GMT, with results expected early on Friday. Pollster YouGov will publish a poll showing how people have voted shortly after polling stations close on Thursday, hoping to repeat its successful prediction of the 2014 Scottish independence vote. Unlike the general elections last year, British broadcasters will not conduct exit polls because the margin of error for an event which has little precedent is too large. WAIT AND SEE A wait-and-see mood was expected to prevail through most of the day, dotted by possible bouts of volatility, as markets nervously await the British poll results. "It will be hard for the market move until the poll results are released. The pound obviously will take center stage. But other European currencies and particularly dollar/yen also bear watching as the pair will reflect swings in risk sentiment," said Shin Kadota, chief Japan FX strategist at Barclays in Tokyo. The dollar was flat at 104.50 yen JPY= after moving the previous day in a narrow 104.855-104.310 range. The greenback has sagged against the yen after Tuesday's testimony by Federal Reserve Janet Yellen was seen to have played down the chances of a U.S. interest rate increase in July. The euro extended gains, rising 0.3 percent to $1.1330 EUR=. A slight ebb in prospects of Britain leaving the EU has helped the common currency. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2016-06-23 09:51:35
Oil prices inched higher on Thursday, shrugging off a smaller than expected draw on U.S. crude stocks as money and equity markets firmed on the last sweep of opinion polls showing Britons favored to remain in the European Union (EU). Global markets, including commodities, have been on tenterhooks for weeks ahead of Britain's so-called Brexit referendum on Thursday. The majority of results are expected to come in between 0100 and 0300 GMT following a YouGov poll shortly after voting closes at 2100 GMT. Global benchmark front-month Brent crude LCOc1 was trading up 31 cents at $50.19 a barrel by 0900 GMT. U.S. futures stood at $49.39, up 26 cents day on day. "Most market participants are positioned ahead of the Brexit voting or are waiting on the sidelines to see the final outcome," said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro. Some of the last opinion polls published late on Wednesday, hours before voting started, showed the "Remain" campaign was ahead. This propelled sterling to a 2016 high against the dollar on Thursday and London's FTSE 100 index was up 0.8 percent. Oil defied bearish news that U.S. weekly crude inventories dropped by less than expected. The Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that stocks fell by 917,000 barrels in the week to June 17, compared with expectations of a 1.7 million barrel decrease. [EIA/S] If Britain votes to remain in the EU, the oil market is likely to switch its focus to fundamentals, returning its attention to potential supply disruptions that have already sent prices higher this year. Saudi Arabia's energy minister told state-owned television that the oil market was returning to balance and prices had risen in response to supply and demand edging closer to equilibrium. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2016-06-22 10:02:46
The dollar erased its early modest gains on Wednesday while sterling stood tall on the eve of Britain's referendum on whether to remain in the European Union. Recent opinion polls have mostly shown a shift towards keeping Britain in the EU, but there are some signs that momentum has stalled for the 'In' camp and the race still looks too close to call. The greenback briefly popped back above 105.00 yen JPY= for the first time in nearly a week late on Tuesday, but last stood at 104.55, down 0.2 percent. "Some banks are not in the market today, or they are just in for commercial orders, ahead of the vote, so dollar/yen will be rangebound for a while," said Kaneo Ogino, director at foreign exchange research firm Global-info Co in Tokyo. "Although the odds seem to favour 'Bremain,' it's still 50/50, and no one wants to be caught short either way," he said. The dollar had risen earlier in the session, after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen held the line on Tuesday of "gradual increases" in U.S. rates. In her testimony before Congress, Yellen expressed general optimism about the U.S. economy and said gradual hikes in the federal funds rate were likely to be needed. However, she stressed the economic outlook was uncertain and that monetary policy was "by no means on a preset course". "At the margin Yellen appeared to be a bit more cautious than before, but overall our assessment of the Fed remains unchanged," said Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank. "We still expect two Fed hikes this year, albeit with clear risk we get no more than one." The euro added 0.2 percent to $1.1266 EUR=, moving back to take aim at a two-week peak of $1.1383 set on Monday. That helped push down the dollar index .DXY, which tracks the U.S. unit against a basket of six rivals. It inched 0.1 percent lower to 93.916, but remained above a two-week trough of 93.425 set overnight. Yellen also highlighted the risks of Brexit, noting it could have "significant economic repercussions." In a similarly guarded tone, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said the ECB stood ready to act with all instruments if necessary. Draghi's comments came as Swiss investment bank UBS warned its clients it may fail to execute some orders on its electronic trading platform should the referendum affect liquidity or cause extreme volatility. Sterling has seesawed in recent weeks with the June 23 vote looming large. A short-covering rally brought it near a six-month high of $1.4788 GBP=D4 on Tuesday, and it last stood at $1.4683, up 0.2 percent. Commodity currencies also took a step back and then rebounded, with the Australian dollar last up 0.3 percent at $0.7465 AUD=D4, moving back toward a seven-week high of $0.7513 touched on Tuesday. More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2016-06-22 09:30:48
Gold's sharp gains on uncertainty over Britain's European Union membership are likely to come to an end, regardless of whether Britons vote to leave or remain in Thursday's referendum. Prices XAU= hit their highest since August 2014 last week as the $5-trillion a year gold market rose with other "safe" assets, such as German bunds, the Swiss franc and Japan's yen. Recent polls suggest an even split and although investors are worried about the economic and market fallout of a "Brexit", bullion's uncertainty premium is not expected to last. An "In" vote is seen as quickly unwinding gold's five percent gain in June, as appetite for risk rises and focus returns to the U.S. economy, analysts and fund managers say. "A clear win for the Remain side will see U.S. yields rise as the potential drag on the global economy and risk appetite is removed," said ICBC Standard Bank analyst Thomas Kendall. "Gold in dollars would likely drop four to five percent," Kendall added. The metal is negatively correlated to rising U.S. real yields because the opportunity cost of holding it increases. And while some see a "Leave" result as a risk-off event that could see gold rally, others see lower prices if the dollar rises and oil falls. Gold is often seen as a hedge against rising inflation. "If investors become overly worried, it is likely that the greenback strengthens with implications for earnings and industry group positioning as precious metals and commodities weaken," Citi analyst Tobias Levkovich said. Another reason for gold to see a sharp, albeit short-lived fall is that in times of financial stress, it can be used as a source of cash to cover losses elsewhere. Sharp declines in equities, for example, could push investors to liquidate gold positions to free up capital. Gold fell to a near 14-month low in September 2008, at the height of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and was for a short time positively correlated with riskier assets, as liquidity dried up. It later increased sharply in value, reacting to central banks' cutting interest rates and devaluing currencies. While a "Brexit" vote might not be as disruptive as the 2008-2009 U.S. subprime crisis, currency swings would impact gold and investor sentiment could be hurt by uncertainty. Christian Gerlach, portfolio manager at GAM Investment Management, returned to gold at the start of June as "stress and risk-off forces" multiplied, but the position is small and would not be increased immediately even in a "Brexit" scenario. "You may have a Brexit, but what kind of Brexit and what kind of conditions," Gerlach said. Investors are also looking at who has been buying. "Although we like gold, the fact that it has been very aggressively bought for a few months makes us cautious" said Ashok Shah, investment director at London & Capital, which has $3.5 billion of assets under management. "If there was going to be a 'Leave' vote, any mini flight to safety would dissipate quickly, because a lot of the money in gold is not long term, but speculative, hedge fund leveraged money." More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2016-06-22 08:22:36
Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Wednesday, with U.S. crude joining Brent above $50 a barrel after data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a larger than expected draw on stocks. U.S. crude futures' August contract, the new front month from Wednesday, climbed 35 cents to $50.20 a barrel by 0604 GMT, marking its first rise above $50 since June 10. Brent crude futures were up 32 cents at $50.94 a barrel.   U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.2 million barrels for the week ended June 17, the API said. The trade group's figures were triple the draw of 1.7 million barrels forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. <API/S> The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration will issue official stockpile data on Wednesday. Markets remain jumpy over the possibility the United Kingdom will vote to leave the European Union on Thursday in a referendum, with polls showing little difference between the "remain" and "leave" camps. The dollar erased early modest gains on Wednesday with sterling near a six-month high on the eve of the referendum. [FRX/] Japan's Nikkei closed nearly 0.6 percent lower, while gold prices were down 0.4 percent. "Strengthening in the dollar and weakness in other currencies would ... be directionally short-term bearish for crude oil" in the event of a British exit, Societe Generale said in a research note. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive because it raises the cost for imports for most of the world's countries. Still, fundamentals could come into play once the dust settles from the vote. "Global demand growth is quite robust, driven by the U.S., China, India and other emerging markets," Societe Generale said. "On the supply side, declining U.S. crude production is expected to underpin a trend of lower non-OPEC production." More»
Amwal Al Ghad English - 2016-06-21 08:45:07
The dollar tumbled on Monday as sterling surged toward its largest one-day percentage gain since 2008 after opinion polls swung in favor of the campaign for Britain to stay in the European Union, boosting risk sentiment. Investors reacted after three of six opinion polls published during the weekend showed a shift toward keeping Britain in the EU, with some citing the killing last week of pro-EU lawmaker Jo Cox as a factor. The implied probability of a "Remain" vote in Thursday's referendum rose to around 78 percent after falling as low as 60 percent last Thursday, according to odds from gambling website Betfair. "This was the first time that we’ve seen a poll that was conducted over the period after (Cox) was tragically killed," said Scott Smith, senior corporate FX trader and market analyst at Cambridge Global Payments in Toronto. "So given the sentiment has changed and it’s looking more likely that Britain will remain within the EU, we’re seeing a rally in risk-correlated assets along with the sterling." Stocks and other riskier assets rose while traditional safe-havens fell in a reversal of the risk-off trading that has dominated markets for much of June. European shares .FTEU3 rose 3.66 percent while the U.S. S&P 500 stock index was up 0.8 percent .SPX. Sterling briefly fell back as rumor-driven speculation emerged about forthcoming polling data that could show the "Leave" camp pulling ahead of "Remain" in the UK's June 23 referendum. "There's still some jitters out there," said Thierry Albert Wizman, global interest rates and currencies strategist at Macquarie Ltd in New York. Prior to the brief selloff, sterling GBP=D4 rose to a global session high of $1.4707, nearly a three-seek peak, as it extended a recovery from Thursday's more than two-month trough of $1.4013. Sterling was last up 2.3 percent at $1.4688, its largest one-day rise since Dec. 15, 2008. The pound gained 2.3 percent to 152.65 yen GBPJPY=R, pulling away from a three-year trough around 145.34, also on Thursday. The euro fell 1.9 percent to 77.12 pence EURGBP=D4. The dollar .DXY fell against a basket of major currencies, dropping to 93.449 in early trading, its lowest in more than two weeks. It was last down 0.6 percent at 93.654. The euro rose 0.1 percent to 117.60 yen EURJPY=R, well above Thursday's three-year low of 115.51 yen. Against the dollar, the euro gained 0.3 percent to $1.1309 EUR=. More»